EUR/USD Breakout through 1.2900 and Intraday Set Ups to Watch
- Posted by Raghee Horner
- on November 23rd, 2012
When I wake up to see the U.S. Dollar Index down over 40 ticks and the Dow not responding (early before the Wall Street open) it gets my attention and I immediately look to the euro for the scoop. The euro is the driver here and the better-than-expected German IFO Business Climate release coupled with an optimistic Mario Draghi has set the tone for this Friday’s session.
The 4:00am EST candle on the EUR/USD tells the story…
With the volatility of the candle digesting simultaneously Draghi’s speech in Frankfurt and German IFO Business Climate, the EUR/USD continues the climb that began early on the 21st.
So what now? (Well you could skip to the bottom and see how you can donate to a worthy cause, get a great book on how to teach yourself any skill, AND join me for a free four-hour intensive webinar all how I trade forex, futures, stocks, and options!)
I’m looking intraday for opportunities to buy on pullbacks but I am also aware that the daily EUR/USD has no clear Directional Bias…it’s still in a chop and while it’s chopping well north of the 200DMA I am hesitant to commit to longer-term time frames despite how tempting it may be.
The daily EUR/USD is still choppy despite today’s rapid climb through 1.2900. The 1.3000 major psychological level may be the place where bears make their stand as the week ends but this resistance could be exactly what shorter-term, intraday bulls need to get a pullback on time frames like the 60, 30, and 15-minute charts.
The challenge with any accelerated move like the one in the EUR/USD today is that it could lead to a pronounced correction. With that in mind I have three places to consider for a long entry on a pullback/profit taking. The 15-minute would be best for a shallow correction and it sets up a buy at 1.2955. The 30-minute is not far behind with support at 1.29040 so I would get long with 1/4 to 1/3 of my overall position size at 1.2955 and then enter the remainder at 1.2940. However I would keep a tighter stop because if the 1.2950 break causes prices to tumble lower, the 60-minute is better poised to catch that fall. The 60-minute would trigger a swing buy at 1.2914 and 1.2905. No one knows just how much the EUR/USD will correct to the downside but I am always cautious after a strong move like today’s.
I also wanted to mention that I am doing a webinar-for-charity with Rally and the release of Tim Ferriss’ book “The Four Hour Chef” which is actually a book that teaches how to learn any skill disguised as a (fun) cookbook. It’s unique to say the least! Anyways, if you buy a copy of the book, Tim Ferriss is donating $6 per book to Donors Choose (an educational charity that helps build better classrooms!) and I will invite you to a four-hour webinar I am doing on forex, futures, stocks, and options trading. Buy the book, help a worthy cause, and attend a trading webinar with me for the cost of the book. (Which I think you will really like! I am pouring through my own copy today!) Click here to buy the book, from which Tim donates his royalties and then some, and I teach you how to master any market!
Here’s the first page of the outline notes!
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.blog comments powered by Disqus
Raghee Horner is a private trader and author based in South Florida. She began experimenting with market timing and charting analysis in 1989 at the age of 17... (More)
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