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Yesterday I was watching the USD/JPY as the trend headed lower and I was waiting for a bounce, so the question 24 hours later is…Is this set up still valid?

Let’s do a little triage.

The 15 minute chart has transitioned out of the mark down cycle so while the swing short is ruled OUT, there could be a triangle/rectangle momentum set up in it’s near future.

Thr MACD Histogram is currently above the zero line so keep an eye on a potential breakout…only headache is the 92.00 just overhead.

So on to the 30 minute chart.  The time frame has begun a transition as the Wave’s downward slope has surely slowed and it’s arguable that this time frame is in distribution…any swing short here would be aggro.

So the next time frame to consider would be the 60 minute and that’s a time frame that HAS maintained the downtrending/mark down cycle…The Wave has a sharp “four to six o’clock” Wave angle.  This is the ideal environment for a swing short on a bounce.   The 60 minute short is waiting at the 34ema low currently at 91.87.  A slightly more aggressive entry could take advantage of the “80″ minor psych level.

So the entry short would require prices to trade higher so here’s the decision:  Take the “bird in the hand” 30 minute aggro swing?  OR wait for the bounce on the 60 minute chart.  I think here’s where you find out whether you are a more aggressive or conservative trader.

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